[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"article-why-solana-etf-approval-odds-improved-2026-zh":3,"article-related-why-solana-etf-approval-odds-improved-2026-zh":31,"series-blockchain-74c35cb9-f398-4068-96a2-e55192f7225a":83},{"id":4,"slug":5,"title":6,"content":7,"summary":8,"source":9,"source_url":10,"author":11,"image_url":12,"cover_image":12,"category":13,"language":14,"translated_content":11,"related_article_id":15,"keywords":16,"key_takeaways":23,"views":27,"created_at":28,"published_at":29,"topic_cluster_id":30},"74c35cb9-f398-4068-96a2-e55192f7225a","why-solana-etf-approval-odds-improved-2026-zh","為什麼 Solana ETF 在 2026 年更有機會過關","\u003Cp data-speakable=\"summary\">\u003Ca href=\"\u002Ftag\u002Fsolana\">Solana\u003C\u002Fa> ETF 在 2026 年更有機會過關，因為 SEC 已經有 futures、custody 和先例可以依循。\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>我認為 Solana ETF 現在是「更可能通過」的一方，反方最強的論點已經被削弱。\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>\u003Ca href=\"\u002Fnews\u002F5-reasons-cursor-is-growing-so-fast-zh\">原因\u003C\u002Fa>不是市場情緒，而是監管路徑已經成形。Bitcoin 與 \u003Ca href=\"\u002Ftag\u002Fethereum\">Ethereum\u003C\u002Fa> 的 spot ETF 都證明，SEC 真正在意的是受監管的期貨市場、可信的託管，以及能被描述為可監測而非混亂的市場結構。Solana 現在比 2024 年更接近這個模板，CME SOL futures 已上線，機構託管也更完整，網路營運穩定性比早期申請時更好。剩下的疑慮仍然存在，但已不像是直接擋下核准的理由。\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Ch2>第一個論點：SEC 已經把玩法講得很清楚\u003C\u002Fh2>\u003Cp>最關鍵的事實是，SEC 早就不再把每一個加密資產當成獨立難題。對 Bitcoin 和 Ethereum，它採用的核心邏輯其實很一致：有足夠大的現貨市場、受監管的期貨市場，以及可與可信交易場域連動的監控安排。Solana 現在比 2024 年更接近這個框架，因為 CME SOL futures 在 2025 年 3 月上線，之後的 \u003Ca href=\"\u002Fnews\u002F5-openai-product-updates-for-teams-zh\">open\u003C\u002Fa> interest 與日成交量已足以進入核准討論。\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cfigure class=\"my-6\">\u003Cimg src=\"https:\u002F\u002Fxxdpdyhzhpamafnrdkyq.supabase.co\u002Fstorage\u002Fv1\u002Fobject\u002Fpublic\u002Fcovers\u002Finline-1780114671633-x1ww.png\" alt=\"為什麼 Solana ETF 在 2026 年更有機會過關\" class=\"rounded-xl w-full\" loading=\"lazy\" \u002F>\u003C\u002Ffigure>\n\u003Cp>這不是裝飾性的進展，而是監管橋樑。SEC 在 Bitcoin 與 Ethereum 的核准中，都依賴 CME 期貨與監控共享的論述；Solana 現在也有自己的版本。SOL futures 當然還沒到 BTC、ETH 那種規模，但它不需要一樣大，只需要大到足以讓 SEC 說市場是可觀測、受監管、而且不完全依賴離岸現貨交易所。\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Ch2>第二個論點：託管已不再是像樣的藉口\u003C\u002Fh2>\u003Cp>早期的 Solana ETF 提案確實碰到一個合理問題：機構級託管比 Bitcoin、Ethereum 薄弱。這件事現在已經改變。Coinbase Custody 在 2024 年加入機構級 Solana 支援，Anchorage Digital 也支援，Fidelity Digital Assets 的基礎設施同樣在擴張。這些都不是邊緣供應商，而是監管機構預期會看到的名字。\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>這很重要，因為 ETF 核准在這裡變成操作問題，不再只是概念問題。SEC 不需要喜歡 SOL，只要相信這個資產可以被安全持有，金鑰管理清楚、資產隔離到位，就足夠了。這一關已經過了。剩下的爭論不是「有沒有託管」，而是 SEC 是否還要在已經接受 Bitcoin 與 Ethereum 同樣結構之後，繼續提高門檻。\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Ch2>第三個論點：Solana 已經修掉監管最在意的部分\u003C\u002Fh2>\u003Cp>Solana 早年的包袱是當機、壅塞，以及它還像基礎設施試驗品的印象。這段歷史沒有消失，但近年的紀錄明顯更強。網路在 2023、2024、2025 這段最高監管關注期間，沒有再出現那種決定性的重大停擺，而 fee-market 的調整也改善了早期壅塞問題。監管者不需要 Solana 完美，只需要它看起來夠耐用，不會讓 ETF 顯得明顯魯莽。\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cfigure class=\"my-6\">\u003Cimg src=\"https:\u002F\u002Fxxdpdyhzhpamafnrdkyq.supabase.co\u002Fstorage\u002Fv1\u002Fobject\u002Fpublic\u002Fcovers\u002Finline-1780114671457-p4zk.png\" alt=\"為什麼 Solana ETF 在 2026 年更有機會過關\" class=\"rounded-xl w-full\" loading=\"lazy\" \u002F>\u003C\u002Ffigure>\n\u003Cp>市場結構也更好看了。現在更多 SOL 交易流向 Coinbase、Kraken 這類美國受監管場域，雖然離岸交易所仍主導全球量能，但已足以削弱「Solana 太依賴不透明管道」的老說法。SEC 已經核准過市場結構並不完美的資產，Solana 不需要比 Bitcoin 或 Ethereum 更乾淨，只要乾淨到能通過同一套測試即可。\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Ch2>反方可能怎麼說\u003C\u002Fh2>\u003Cp>反方並不荒謬。Solana 的現貨市場仍比 Bitcoin 更偏離岸，validator concentration 也比 Ethereum 擁護者願意承認的更明顯，staking 問題依舊沒有完全解決。再加上政治風險，如果 SEC 想放慢腳步或縮小核准範圍，它完全可以拿這些點當理由。\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>這是個嚴肅的論點，因為 ETF 核准不是純粹看產品好不好，而是監管判斷。判斷題本來就可能拖很久，延到 2026 年底甚至 2027 年初都不奇怪。\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>但拖延不等於否決。現在每個主要反對點都有對應答案：期貨已存在，託管已存在，網路穩定性已改善，而 SEC 也已經接受過 Bitcoin 與 Ethereum 相同的 ETF 架構。反方最強的攻擊線已經不再是「這個資產不能做」，而只是「我們還想再看一會兒」。\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Ch2>你能做什麼\u003C\u002Fh2>\u003Cp>如果你是投資人，不要把 Solana ETF 當成保證事件，但也別再用長尾機率去定價。如果你是 founder 或產品負責人，應該現在就把機構分發、託管合作、合規化市場接入當成設計前提。如果你是工程師，\u003Ca href=\"\u002Fnews\u002F5-takeaways-replit-enterprise-push-zh\">重點\u003C\u002Fa>更直接：監管準備已經是產品需求，不是法務附註。真正會贏的團隊，是那些能在核准到來前，就先證明資產、基礎設施與控制措施都已就位的人。\u003C\u002Fp>","我認為 Solana ETF 在 2026 年的過關機率已明顯上升，因為 SEC 已經有 futures、custody 和先例可以依循。","www.vaasblock.com","https:\u002F\u002Fwww.vaasblock.com\u002Fnews\u002Fsolana-etf-approval-2026-sec-institutional\u002F",null,"https:\u002F\u002Fxxdpdyhzhpamafnrdkyq.supabase.co\u002Fstorage\u002Fv1\u002Fobject\u002Fpublic\u002Fcovers\u002Finline-1780114671633-x1ww.png","blockchain","zh","39f0e059-785f-4c7d-9849-f8b2db57044f",[17,18,19,20,21,22],"Solana ETF","SEC","CME futures","custody","spot ETF","regulatory approval",[24,25,26],"SEC 已有 futures、custody、precedent 可套用到 Solana。","反方的核心阻力從「不能批」變成「還想觀察」，強度已下降。","工程、產品與商業團隊都該把合規與託管當成產品能力來做。",4,"2026-05-30T04:17:25.842083+00:00","2026-05-30T04:17:25.831+00:00","1534679b-7605-4ede-a072-791c912656e7",{"tags":32,"relatedLang":42,"relatedPosts":46},[33,34,36,38,40],{"name":20,"slug":20},{"name":18,"slug":35},"sec",{"name":19,"slug":37},"cme-futures",{"name":21,"slug":39},"spot-etf",{"name":17,"slug":41},"solana-etf",{"id":15,"slug":43,"title":44,"language":45},"why-solana-etf-approval-odds-improved-2026-en","Why Solana ETF approval odds improved in 2026","en",[47,53,59,65,71,77],{"id":48,"slug":49,"title":50,"cover_image":51,"image_url":51,"created_at":52,"category":13},"24f3ab93-82fa-4410-99da-909a0ea3b417","solana-apis-cut-weeks-off-integration-zh","7 款最省整合時間的 Solana API","https:\u002F\u002Fxxdpdyhzhpamafnrdkyq.supabase.co\u002Fstorage\u002Fv1\u002Fobject\u002Fpublic\u002Fcovers\u002Finline-1781019180168-gy47.png","2026-06-09T15:32:30.454604+00:00",{"id":54,"slug":55,"title":56,"cover_image":57,"image_url":57,"created_at":58,"category":13},"e64dd8d0-aa54-479d-bb94-254a94fefa9e","solana-unchained-token-sale-nears-phase-1-close-en-zh","Solana Unchained 預售 Phase 1 進入倒數","https:\u002F\u002Fxxdpdyhzhpamafnrdkyq.supabase.co\u002Fstorage\u002Fv1\u002Fobject\u002Fpublic\u002Fcovers\u002Finline-1781018282067-4d9s.png","2026-06-09T15:17:27.445517+00:00",{"id":60,"slug":61,"title":62,"cover_image":63,"image_url":63,"created_at":64,"category":13},"1a666fb4-9ee7-495d-b45b-199959460e42","june-2026-web3-signals-founders-use-now-zh","2026年6月 Web3 創業者該看什麼","https:\u002F\u002Fxxdpdyhzhpamafnrdkyq.supabase.co\u002Fstorage\u002Fv1\u002Fobject\u002Fpublic\u002Fcovers\u002Finline-1781003893042-b5h0.png","2026-06-09T11:17:28.227544+00:00",{"id":66,"slug":67,"title":68,"cover_image":69,"image_url":69,"created_at":70,"category":13},"aa802f2e-4eae-4536-b1a0-c814320963c0","bitcoin-defi-will-grow-but-not-by-copying-ethereum-zh","比特幣 DeFi 會成長，但不是靠複製以太坊","https:\u002F\u002Fxxdpdyhzhpamafnrdkyq.supabase.co\u002Fstorage\u002Fv1\u002Fobject\u002Fpublic\u002Fcovers\u002Finline-1780922875348-91e3.png","2026-06-08T12:47:26.064023+00:00",{"id":72,"slug":73,"title":74,"cover_image":75,"image_url":75,"created_at":76,"category":13},"9dca2375-a42a-4d13-9756-dc681328369d","ai-blockchain-projects-need-real-utility-not-token-theater-zh","AI 與區塊鏈要靠真實效用，不靠代幣表演","https:\u002F\u002Fxxdpdyhzhpamafnrdkyq.supabase.co\u002Fstorage\u002Fv1\u002Fobject\u002Fpublic\u002Fcovers\u002Finline-1780918380855-iy7d.png","2026-06-08T11:32:16.63163+00:00",{"id":78,"slug":79,"title":80,"cover_image":81,"image_url":81,"created_at":82,"category":13},"e5f1b20c-c4c6-43c6-a8db-be965cdd566e","dmg-50mw-ai-loi-miners-power-assets-zh","DMG 的 50MW AI LOI 證明礦工最該賣的是電力資產，不是算力敘事","https:\u002F\u002Fxxdpdyhzhpamafnrdkyq.supabase.co\u002Fstorage\u002Fv1\u002Fobject\u002Fpublic\u002Fcovers\u002Finline-1780917487712-0z92.png","2026-06-08T11:17:28.647982+00:00",[84,89,94,99,104,109,114,119,124,129],{"id":85,"slug":86,"title":87,"created_at":88},"e1b4b518-f86b-410c-8c82-8cfb787ff2ef","moonpay-open-wallet-standard-ai-payments-zh","MoonPay 推 OWS，瞄準 AI 付款","2026-03-28T03:08:33.379969+00:00",{"id":90,"slug":91,"title":92,"created_at":93},"e72bae29-ddbd-437b-aaa4-cd662605394b","next-gen-crypto-simulators-ai-web3-training-zh","新一代加密模擬器更聰明了","2026-04-01T09:36:33.917023+00:00",{"id":95,"slug":96,"title":97,"created_at":98},"b8e39b58-6b9d-4714-92d3-26df18a3e0f4","rtk-cuts-claude-code-token-spend-zh","RTK 讓 Claude Code 少燒 Token","2026-04-01T10:24:29.259497+00:00",{"id":100,"slug":101,"title":102,"created_at":103},"7ff10146-4ca0-4670-a02c-384dde04f610","trm-labs-ai-agents-crypto-investigations-zh","TRM Labs 將 AI agent 帶進加密調查","2026-04-01T10:33:30.166266+00:00",{"id":105,"slug":106,"title":107,"created_at":108},"00668dea-9f0e-4019-b861-03817d5a8877","how-web3-marketing-changed-in-2026-zh","2026 Web3 行銷怎麼變了","2026-04-02T01:36:34.973322+00:00",{"id":110,"slug":111,"title":112,"created_at":113},"e7992274-42ee-40bc-bb05-97250098c56c","ai-agentic-defi-web3-grants-march-2026-zh","AI、Agentic DeFi 與 Web3 補助案","2026-04-02T05:51:36.857954+00:00",{"id":115,"slug":116,"title":117,"created_at":118},"5cef810b-af3d-467a-8b41-627769eca895","why-crypto-is-fixated-on-ai-agents-zh","為何加密圈盯上 AI Agent","2026-04-02T05:54:28.919864+00:00",{"id":120,"slug":121,"title":122,"created_at":123},"d30e6203-d522-41a1-b529-fcf4499cd985","web3-explained-what-it-is-why-it-matters-zh","Web3 是什麼，為何重要","2026-04-02T06:15:32.580114+00:00",{"id":125,"slug":126,"title":127,"created_at":128},"f29e65ae-64df-463b-ba22-afd9dcbd0f8f","trust-wallet-agent-kit-ai-trade-25-chains-zh","Trust Wallet 讓 AI 幫你交易","2026-04-02T06:27:33.183404+00:00",{"id":130,"slug":131,"title":132,"created_at":133},"91022b4c-b53e-4c18-abfe-914a8eca6e28","blockchain-in-ai-real-use-cases-zh","區塊鏈加 AI，真實落地在哪裡","2026-04-02T06:30:44.026286+00:00"]