[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"article-will-nvidia-stock-recover-after-deepseek-zh":3,"tags-will-nvidia-stock-recover-after-deepseek-zh":35,"related-lang-will-nvidia-stock-recover-after-deepseek-zh":52,"related-posts-will-nvidia-stock-recover-after-deepseek-zh":56,"series-industry-327cb21a-e255-4225-93de-fa6369880bb0":93},{"id":4,"title":5,"content":6,"summary":7,"source":8,"source_url":9,"author":10,"image_url":11,"keywords":12,"language":23,"translated_content":10,"views":24,"is_premium":25,"created_at":26,"updated_at":26,"cover_image":11,"published_at":27,"rewrite_status":28,"rewrite_error":10,"rewritten_from_id":29,"slug":30,"category":31,"related_article_id":32,"status":33,"google_indexed_at":34,"x_posted_at":10,"tweet_text":10,"title_rewritten_at":10,"title_original":10,"key_takeaways":10,"topic_cluster_id":10,"embedding":10,"is_canonical_seed":25},"327cb21a-e255-4225-93de-fa6369880bb0","DeepSeek 之後，NVIDIA 股價會回來嗎","\u003Cp>DeepSeek 一出手，AI 股就抖了一下。\u003Ca href=\"https:\u002F\u002Fwww.deepseek.com\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">DeepSeek\u003C\u002Fa> 讓市場開始懷疑，訓練大模型真的需要那麼多算力嗎。這問題一丟出來，\u003Ca href=\"https:\u002F\u002Fwww.nvidia.com\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">NVIDIA\u003C\u002Fa> 的股價就很難繼續裝沒事。\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>講白了，市場現在不是在問 AI 還熱不熱。它在問，AI 這門生意到底要燒多少 GPU。這差很多，因為估值是拿未來現金流算出來的，不是拿情緒撐出來的。\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>我覺得這次修正很有意思。它不是單純的利空。它是把投資人腦中的假設，整個拉到桌上重算一次。\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Ch2>DeepSeek 為什麼會打到 NVIDIA\u003C\u002Fh2>\u003Cp>DeepSeek 的衝擊，不在於它多會講故事。重點是它讓人看到，較小、較便宜的模型，也能做出很能打的結果。這直接打中 \u003Ca href=\"\u002Fnews\u002Fmarch-2026-synology-docker-updates-zh\">202\u003C\u002Fa>4 年那套「算力越多越好」的敘事。\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cfigure class=\"my-6\">\u003Cimg src=\"https:\u002F\u002Fxxdpdyhzhpamafnrdkyq.supabase.co\u002Fstorage\u002Fv1\u002Fobject\u002Fpublic\u002Fcovers\u002Finline-1775161858604-gxgw.png\" alt=\"DeepSeek 之後，NVIDIA 股價會回來嗎\" class=\"rounded-xl w-full\" loading=\"lazy\" \u002F>\u003C\u002Ffigure>\n\u003Cp>如果模型效率提升，企業就會開始算帳。原本要買 1,000 顆 GPU，現在可能只買 700 顆。原本要蓋一整座叢集，現在可能先延後採購。這種變化不一定會讓需求消失，但會壓低成長速度。\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>市場最怕的不是需求少一點。市場怕的是，原本以為會一直爆衝的資本支出，突然變成要精算 ROI。那樣一來，\u003Ca href=\"\u002Fnews\u002Fnvidia-b300-vs-h200-deepseek-perf-zh\">NVID\u003C\u002Fa>IA 的高估值就會先被打折。\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cul>\u003Cli>DeepSeek 改變了「越燒越多」的 AI 支出想像。\u003C\u002Fli>\u003Cli>模型效率提升，會壓到部分高階 GPU 的採購量。\u003C\u002Fli>\u003Cli>但 AI 應用變多，也可能拉高總體 inference 需求。\u003C\u002Fli>\u003Cli>真正的問題，是市場願意給多高的成長倍數。\u003C\u002Fli>\u003C\u002Ful>\u003Ch2>NVIDIA 真的只靠賣晶片嗎\u003C\u002Fh2>\u003Cp>很多人把 NVIDIA 想成晶片公司。這樣看太小了。它賣的是整套平台。GPU、網路、軟體工具、開發者生態，全都綁在一起。\u003Ca href=\"https:\u002F\u002Fdeveloper.nvidia.com\u002Fcuda-zone\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">CUDA\u003C\u002Fa> 就是最硬的護城河之一。\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>你可以改用別家硬體，但不會很輕鬆。團隊要重寫程式、重測效能、重調部署流程。對雲端業者來說，這些都是實打實的成本。對產品團隊來說，這些就是延誤上線的風險。\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>所以 NVIDIA 的優勢，不只在晶片規格。它還在於，大家已經習慣用它的工具鏈做事。這種黏性很現實，也很難用一句「更便宜」就打掉。\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cblockquote>“The more you buy, the more you save.” — Jensen Huang, NVIDIA GTC 2024 keynote\u003C\u002Fblockquote>\u003Cp>這句話很像黃仁勳的風格。直接、好懂、也很會賣。意思很清楚：你買的不只是硬體，而是一套能擴張的 AI 基礎設施。\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>當然，競爭也不是沒有。只是競爭對手要贏，不能只靠價格。還得拼軟體相容性、供貨穩定度，還有工程團隊願不願意換。\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Ch2>競品怎麼看，數字怎麼比\u003C\u002Fh2>\u003Cp>如果只看硬體價格，很多對手都能講故事。問題是，AI 不是只買晶片。它是買整個部署能力。這就是 NVIDIA 比較難被取代的地方。\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cfigure class=\"my-6\">\u003Cimg src=\"https:\u002F\u002Fxxdpdyhzhpamafnrdkyq.supabase.co\u002Fstorage\u002Fv1\u002Fobject\u002Fpublic\u002Fcovers\u002Finline-1775161857391-v1fd.png\" alt=\"DeepSeek 之後，NVIDIA 股價會回來嗎\" class=\"rounded-xl w-full\" loading=\"lazy\" \u002F>\u003C\u002Ffigure>\n\u003Cp>\u003Ca href=\"https:\u002F\u002Fwww.amd.com\u002Fen\u002Fproducts\u002Faccelerators\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">AMD\u003C\u002Fa> 的確有機會吃到一些低價市場。它的加速卡對部分客戶很有吸引力。可是軟體生態和開發者習慣，還在追 NVIDIA 的車尾燈。\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>\u003Ca href=\"https:\u002F\u002Fwww.huawei.com\u002Fen\u002Fproducts\u002Fascend\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Huawei Ascend\u003C\u002Fa> 在中國市場有地緣優勢。可是出口管制、供應鏈、以及國際市場接受度，讓它的舞台比較侷限。這不是誰比較強的問題，是市場範圍就不同。\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cul>\u003Cli>\u003Ca href=\"https:\u002F\u002Fwww.amd.com\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">AMD\u003C\u002Fa>：價格有競爭力，但生態還在追趕。\u003C\u002Fli>\u003Cli>\u003Ca href=\"https:\u002F\u002Fwww.huawei.com\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Huawei\u003C\u002Fa>：中國市場有空間，但外部限制很多。\u003C\u002Fli>\u003Cli>\u003Ca href=\"https:\u002F\u002Fwww.microsoft.com\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Microsoft\u003C\u002Fa>：會買很多 GPU，也會自己做更多客製化硬體。\u003C\u002Fli>\u003Cli>\u003Ca href=\"https:\u002F\u002Fwww.google.com\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Google\u003C\u002Fa>：自家 TPU 很強，但也不會完全放棄外部供應。\u003C\u002Fli>\u003Cli>\u003Ca href=\"https:\u002F\u002Fwww.cisco.com\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Cisco\u003C\u002Fa>：可當參考案例，基礎設施巨頭常常很重要，但股價不一定永遠狂飆。\u003C\u002Fli>\u003C\u002Ful>\u003Cp>這裡有個很現實的數字邏輯。假設一家公司原本每年買 10 億美元的 AI 伺服器，效率提升後只需要買 7 億美元。那不是崩盤，但成長曲線會變平。估值倍數一旦先拉太高，股價就很容易被修理。\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>所以 NVIDIA 的股價，不是看它會不會死。是看它還能不能維持超高成長。市場現在就是在重新定價這件事。\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Ch2>股價會回來嗎，先看三個指標\u003C\u002Fh2>\u003Cp>我自己的判斷是，NVIDIA 有機會回升，但不會一路直線上去。股價能不能修復，關鍵不是新聞多熱，而是財報有沒有持續打臉悲觀預期。\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>第一個看點是 data-c\u003Ca href=\"\u002Fnews\u002Fopenai-gpt-5-2-chatgpt-release-notes-zh\">en\u003C\u002Fa>ter 營收。這是最直接的 AI 需求溫度計。第二個看點是毛利率。只要毛利還能站得住，就代表定價權還在。第三個看點是雲端巨頭的資本支出指引。這些大客戶一改口，市場會馬上反應。\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>如果這三個指標都穩，股價就有機會慢慢修回來。不是暴衝那種，是比較像重新站穩的回升。這種走法雖然沒那麼嗨，但比較真實。\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cul>\u003Cli>Data-center 營收要持續成長。\u003C\u002Fli>\u003Cli>毛利率不能掉太快。\u003C\u002Fli>\u003Cli>雲端業者的 capex 不能一起縮手。\u003C\u002Fli>\u003Cli>新一代產品出貨節奏要穩。\u003C\u002Fli>\u003Cli>市場對 AI 推論需求要維持信心。\u003C\u002Fli>\u003C\u002Ful>\u003Cp>你可能會問，那 DeepSeek 不是很傷嗎。我的看法是，它傷的是估值，不一定傷到生意本體。NVIDIA 仍然卡在 AI 基礎設施的核心位置。只是市場不會再無腦給高分了。\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Ch2>這次修正背後，其實是產業換算方式\u003C\u002Fh2>\u003Cp>AI 產業現在進入第二階段。第一階段是大家搶著買最強 GPU。第二階段是大家開始算效率、算成本、算每個 Token 的利潤。這時候，硬體供應商就不能只講性能，還要講整體 TCO。\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>這也解釋了為什麼 NVIDIA 還是強，但股價卻會震。公司本體和股價感受，本來就不是同一件事。公司可以繼續賺很多錢，市場卻因為期待值太高而先砍估值。\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>台灣開發者其實很熟這種邏輯。大家買伺服器、買雲端、買 LLM API，最後都會回到一句話：這東西每個月到底燒多少錢。AI 也是一樣。只要成本壓力上來，架構就會變。\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>我會給一個很直接的預測：未來 6 到 12 個月，NVIDIA 股價比較可能走震盪修復，不太像 V 型反彈。只要 AI 推論需求繼續擴張，NVIDIA 還是核心玩家。只是市場會更挑剔，也更看數字。\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>所以問題不是「NVIDIA 會不會回到以前那種狂飆狀態」。問題是，AI 真的還需要多少 GPU。這題如果答案還是高，股價就有機會回來。若答案開始變保守，市場就會把夢想重新打折。\u003C\u002Fp>","DeepSeek 讓市場重新算 AI 成本，但 NVIDIA 仍握有 GPU、CUDA 與資料中心供應鏈。本文用數字、競品與產業脈絡，拆解股價能否回升。","www.zhihu.com","https:\u002F\u002Fwww.zhihu.com\u002Fen\u002Fanswer\u002F89670561242",null,"https:\u002F\u002Fxxdpdyhzhpamafnrdkyq.supabase.co\u002Fstorage\u002Fv1\u002Fobject\u002Fpublic\u002Fcovers\u002Finline-1775161858604-gxgw.png",[13,14,15,16,17,18,19,20,21,22],"NVIDIA","DeepSeek","AI股","GPU","CUDA","LLM","資料中心","AI推論","AMD","股價分析","zh",1,false,"2026-04-02T20:30:36.102518+00:00","2026-04-02T20:30:35.992+00:00","done","1337f62d-ebd4-4bc8-bfda-80a0a138e933","will-nvidia-stock-recover-after-deepseek-zh","industry","0ca0aadf-acab-49d2-8e28-2cb93ec7252f","published","2026-04-08T09:00:48.804+00:00",[36,38,41,43,45,47,49,51],{"name":21,"slug":37},"amd",{"name":39,"slug":40},"Nvidia","nvidia",{"name":16,"slug":42},"gpu",{"name":17,"slug":44},"cuda",{"name":20,"slug":46},"ai推論",{"name":14,"slug":48},"deepseek",{"name":18,"slug":50},"llm",{"name":22,"slug":22},{"id":32,"slug":53,"title":54,"language":55},"will-nvidia-stock-recover-after-deepseek-en","Will NVIDIA Stock Recover After DeepSeek?","en",[57,63,69,75,81,87],{"id":58,"slug":59,"title":60,"cover_image":61,"image_url":61,"created_at":62,"category":31},"cd078ce9-0a92-485a-b428-2f5523250a19","circles-agent-stack-targets-machine-speed-payments-zh","Circle 推出 Agent Stack，瞄準機器速度支付","https:\u002F\u002Fxxdpdyhzhpamafnrdkyq.supabase.co\u002Fstorage\u002Fv1\u002Fobject\u002Fpublic\u002Fcovers\u002Finline-1778871663628-uyk5.png","2026-05-15T19:00:44.16849+00:00",{"id":64,"slug":65,"title":66,"cover_image":67,"image_url":67,"created_at":68,"category":31},"96d96399-f674-4269-997a-cddfc34291a0","iren-signs-nvidia-ai-infrastructure-pact-zh","IREN 綁上 Nvidia AI 基建","https:\u002F\u002Fxxdpdyhzhpamafnrdkyq.supabase.co\u002Fstorage\u002Fv1\u002Fobject\u002Fpublic\u002Fcovers\u002Finline-1778871057561-bukp.png","2026-05-15T18:50:37.57206+00:00",{"id":70,"slug":71,"title":72,"cover_image":73,"image_url":73,"created_at":74,"category":31},"de12a36e-52f9-4bca-8deb-a41cf974ffd9","circle-agent-stack-ai-payments-zh","Circle 推出 Agent Stack 做 AI 付款","https:\u002F\u002Fxxdpdyhzhpamafnrdkyq.supabase.co\u002Fstorage\u002Fv1\u002Fobject\u002Fpublic\u002Fcovers\u002Finline-1778870462187-t9xv.png","2026-05-15T18:40:30.945394+00:00",{"id":76,"slug":77,"title":78,"cover_image":79,"image_url":79,"created_at":80,"category":31},"e6379f8a-3305-4862-bd15-1192d3247841","why-nebius-ai-pivot-is-more-real-than-hype-zh","為什麼 Nebius 的 AI 轉型比炒作更真實","https:\u002F\u002Fxxdpdyhzhpamafnrdkyq.supabase.co\u002Fstorage\u002Fv1\u002Fobject\u002Fpublic\u002Fcovers\u002Finline-1778823044520-9mfz.png","2026-05-15T05:30:24.978992+00:00",{"id":82,"slug":83,"title":84,"cover_image":85,"image_url":85,"created_at":86,"category":31},"66c4e357-d84d-43ef-a2e7-120c4609e98e","nvidia-backs-corning-factories-with-billions-zh","Nvidia 出資 Corning 工廠擴產","https:\u002F\u002Fxxdpdyhzhpamafnrdkyq.supabase.co\u002Fstorage\u002Fv1\u002Fobject\u002Fpublic\u002Fcovers\u002Finline-1778822450270-trdb.png","2026-05-15T05:20:27.701475+00:00",{"id":88,"slug":89,"title":90,"cover_image":91,"image_url":91,"created_at":92,"category":31},"31d8109c-8b0b-46e2-86bc-d274a03269d1","why-anthropic-gates-foundation-ai-public-goods-zh","為什麼 Anthropic 和 Gates Foundation 應該投資 A…","https:\u002F\u002Fxxdpdyhzhpamafnrdkyq.supabase.co\u002Fstorage\u002Fv1\u002Fobject\u002Fpublic\u002Fcovers\u002Finline-1778796636474-u508.png","2026-05-14T22:10:21.138177+00:00",[94,99,104,109,114,119,124,129,134,139],{"id":95,"slug":96,"title":97,"created_at":98},"ee073da7-28b3-4752-a319-5a501459fb87","ai-in-2026-what-actually-matters-now-zh","2026 AI 真正重要的事","2026-03-26T07:09:12.008134+00:00",{"id":100,"slug":101,"title":102,"created_at":103},"83bd1795-8548-44c9-9a7e-de50a0923f71","trump-ai-framework-power-speech-state-preemption-zh","川普 AI 框架瞄準電力、言論與州權","2026-03-26T07:12:18.695466+00:00",{"id":105,"slug":106,"title":107,"created_at":108},"ea6be18b-c903-4e54-97b7-5f7447a612e0","nvidia-gtc-2026-big-ai-announcements-zh","NVIDIA GTC 2026 重點拆解","2026-03-26T07:14:26.62638+00:00",{"id":110,"slug":111,"title":112,"created_at":113},"4bcec76f-4c36-4daa-909f-54cd702f7c93","claude-users-spreading-out-and-getting-better-zh","Claude 用戶更分散，也更會用","2026-03-26T07:22:52.325888+00:00",{"id":115,"slug":116,"title":117,"created_at":118},"bd903b15-2473-4178-9789-b7557816e535","openclaw-raises-hard-question-for-ai-models-zh","OpenClaw 逼問 AI 模型價值","2026-03-26T07:24:54.707486+00:00",{"id":120,"slug":121,"title":122,"created_at":123},"eeac6b9e-ad9d-4831-8eec-8bba3f9bca6a","gap-google-gemini-checkout-fashion-search-zh","Gap 把結帳搬進 Gemini","2026-03-26T07:28:23.937768+00:00",{"id":125,"slug":126,"title":127,"created_at":128},"0740e53f-605d-4d57-8601-c10beb126f3c","google-pushes-gemini-transition-to-march-2026-zh","Google 把 Gemini 轉換延到 2026 年 3…","2026-03-26T07:30:12.825269+00:00",{"id":130,"slug":131,"title":132,"created_at":133},"e660d801-2421-4529-8fa9-86b82b066990","metas-llama-4-benchmark-scandal-gets-worse-zh","Meta Llama 4 分數風波又擴大","2026-03-26T07:34:21.156421+00:00",{"id":135,"slug":136,"title":137,"created_at":138},"183f9e7c-e143-40bb-a6d5-67ba84a3a8bc","accenture-mistral-ai-sovereign-enterprise-deal-zh","Accenture 攜手 Mistral AI 賣主權 AI","2026-03-26T07:38:14.818906+00:00",{"id":140,"slug":141,"title":142,"created_at":143},"191d9b1b-768a-478c-978c-dd7431a38149","mistral-ai-faces-its-hardest-year-yet-zh","Mistral AI 迎來最硬的一年","2026-03-26T07:40:23.716374+00:00"]