Ethereum’s 66% drop leaves ETH at a buy zone test

Ethereum is trading near $1,670 after a 66% drop, and traders are split on whether that is a buy signal.

Ethereum has fallen more than 66% from its late-2025 peak near $4,800, but the debate is no longer just about price. The case for buying ETH now rests on five signals: weak momentum, exchange outflows, macro risk, and whether long-term demand is still building.

Item	Current reading	What it suggests
ETH price	Near $1,670	Deep drawdown from peak
Peak-to-trough move	Down 66% from ~$4,800	Bear market pressure
Q1 performance	About -29%	Weak start to the year
Exchange outflows	~500,000 ETH in 7 days	Possible accumulation
RSI	Near 32	Close to oversold

1. Ethereum’s price is already in deep reset territory

ETH’s slide to around $1,670 puts it far below the late-2025 high near $4,800. That is the kind of move that forces investors to ask whether they are looking at a bargain or a falling knife.

The answer depends on time horizon. Short-term traders see a market that keeps printing lower highs and lower lows. Longer-term buyers may see a reset that has already removed a large share of speculative excess.

• Current price: about $1,670
• Peak: near $4,800
• Drawdown: more than 66%

2. The quarterly trend still favors caution

Ethereum is on track for its third straight quarter of double-digit losses, which is not the kind of backdrop that usually marks a clean bottom. Daan Crypto Trades noted that ETH fell about 29% in the first quarter and remains down more than 20% in the second quarter with weeks left in the period.

That matters because bear markets often last longer than buyers expect. Even if ETH has already fallen hard, a weak quarterly pattern can keep sidelined capital waiting for a better entry.

• Q1 2026: roughly -29%
• Q2 2026: more than -20% so far
• Q4 2025: about -28%

3. Exchange outflows are the strongest bullish clue

One of the clearest pro-ETH signals is the movement of coins off centralized exchanges. Ali Martinez said nearly 500,000 ETH, worth about $800 million, left trading platforms over the past week. That kind of flow often points to holders moving coins into cold storage instead of preparing to sell.

It does not guarantee a rally, but it does suggest some investors are treating these prices as accumulation territory. If exchange balances keep falling while demand holds steady, selling pressure can ease.

Possible interpretation: - Coins leave exchanges - Holders reduce immediate sell supply - Market gets less liquid on the sell side - Price can stabilize if buyers step in

4. The chart is still bearish, even if momentum is fading

Ethereum’s daily chart remains weak. The Relative Strength Index is near 32, which is close to oversold territory, but oversold does not mean reversal. Assets can stay weak for long stretches during downtrends.

The MACD is still below the signal line and in negative territory, which means bearish momentum has not fully broken. Traders looking for confirmation still want a bullish crossover, stronger volume, or a clear reclaim of prior support.

• RSI: near 32
• MACD: still negative
• Trend: lower highs and lower lows

5. Macro news could help, but it is not a thesis by itself

Ethereum is also trading against a macro backdrop that could shift quickly. Reports that a U.S.-Iran peace agreement may be close have raised hopes for better risk sentiment, and lower geopolitical tension can help crypto if investors move back into risk assets.

Michaël van de Poppe argued that a deal could improve liquidity conditions for cryptocurrencies. Even so, macro relief is a catalyst, not a foundation. ETH still needs buyers to absorb supply and confirm that the market has moved from panic into accumulation.

How to decide

If you are a long-term investor, the strongest argument for ETH now is the exchange outflow data paired with a price that is already deeply discounted. If you are a trader, the chart still says wait for confirmation, because bearish momentum has not fully cleared.

In plain terms: accumulation-minded buyers may start scaling in, but risk-averse buyers may want proof that ETH can hold current levels before committing more capital.